FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

108.92 – 402.86

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

157 – 478

Prediction correct · off by 61.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 411.7 ±10.5

9679Madison Eagles

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 41.35Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7188SaddleBots

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 50.55Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

573Mech Warriors

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 17.02Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 556.5 ±11.7

8728Argonauts

Season APEX 129.1Event APEX 96.04Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 288.26Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9618Tronarchs

Season APEX 42Event APEX 18.56Rank 42Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9679, 7188, 573

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.9 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9679, 7188, 573

Auto

11.7 11%

Teleop

65.7 64%

Endgame

25.2 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8728, 7769, 9618

/ 100 compat

Projected

402.9 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8728, 7769, 9618

Auto

64.9 16%

Teleop

225.4 57%

Endgame

105.7 27%

Strengths

· 7769 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.65 · Blue 2.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score108.9pts

Blue projected score402.9pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -293.9
Score range: 78–434
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 635 vs event baseline 174.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

411.7Season APEX556.5

11.7Auto64.9

65.7Teleop225.4

25.2Endgame105.7

55Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	88
teleop	99	315
endgame	48	70
foul	0	5
total	157	478

Result

Final score

157 – 478

Prediction correct · off by 61.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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