FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

105.73 – 222.78

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

137 – 261

Prediction correct · off by 34.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 360.5 ±11.1

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 70.94Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5436Cyber Cats

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 41.59Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5478Pershing Doughbots

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX -6.8Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 421.7 ±11.7

33Killer Bees

Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 167.75Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9747ElectroPanthers II

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 19.36Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10652Mechanical MacGyvers

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 35.67Rank 28Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3175, 5436, 5478

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3175, 5436, 5478

Auto

37.8 38%

Teleop

0.9 1%

Endgame

60.9 61%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 33, 9747, 10652

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 33, 9747, 10652

Auto

31.8 15%

Teleop

123.6 58%

Endgame

56.8 27%

Strengths

· 33 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.08 · Blue 2.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score105.7pts

Blue projected score222.8pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -117
Score range: 75–254
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 398 vs event baseline 171.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

360.5Season APEX421.7

37.8Auto31.8

0.9Teleop123.6

60.9Endgame56.8

21Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	26
teleop	74	167
endgame	24	68
foul	5	0
total	137	261

Result

Final score

137 – 261

Prediction correct · off by 34.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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