FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

122.9 – 53.63

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

59 – 179

Prediction missed · off by 94.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 178.4 ±13.9

4961Shock and Awe-sum

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 45.92Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3302TurboTrojans

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 57.18Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5065Knights #5065

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 19.8Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 234.1 ±12.7

5860Full Metal Muskrats

Season APEX 103.3Event APEX 38.62Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5531Orange Crush

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 8.72Rank 12Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

7813New Haven RoboRaptors

Season APEX 41Event APEX 6.29Rank 26Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4961, 3302, 5065

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4961, 3302, 5065

Auto

30.2 25%

Teleop

64.7 53%

Endgame

26.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5860, 5531, 7813

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5860, 5531, 7813

Auto

23.8 47%

Teleop

39.4 78%

Endgame

-12.5 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.04 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score122.9pts

Blue projected score53.6pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 69.3
Score range: 23–154
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 238 vs event baseline 172.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

178.4Season APEX234.1

30.2Auto23.8

64.7Teleop39.4

26.3Endgame-12.5

16Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	19
teleop	31	130
endgame	18	30
foul	0	0
total	59	179

Result

Final score

59 – 179

Prediction missed · off by 94.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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