FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

140.15 – 101.5

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

212 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 43.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 521.7 ±10.7

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 86.44Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8364Rising Stars Academy - Nebulas

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 23.76Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX 29.95Rank 10Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 154.9 ±13.9

5467RoboTractors

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 5.92Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10665Unibots

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 27.78Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5527Cyber Phoenix

Season APEX 71.7Event APEX 67.8Rank 19Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9245, 8364, 469

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9245, 8364, 469

Auto

39.9 28%

Teleop

95.1 68%

Endgame

5.1 4%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5467, 10665, 5527

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5467, 10665, 5527

Auto

24.7 29%

Teleop

56.0 65%

Endgame

5.0 6%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score140.2pts

Blue projected score101.5pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 38.7
Score range: 71–171
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 328 vs event baseline 173.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

521.7Season APEX154.9

39.9Auto24.7

95.1Teleop56

5.1Endgame5

210Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	18
teleop	74	41
endgame	76	27
foul	0	30
total	212	116

Result

Final score

212 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 43.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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