FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

121.48 – 272.96

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

129 – 342

Prediction correct · off by 38.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 274 ±12.2

7188SaddleBots

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 42.68Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9252Wingspan

Season APEX 45.5Event APEX 20.78Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10612Cougear

Season APEX 77Event APEX 58.02Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 679.3 ±11.2

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 270.07Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11493Pixel Knights

Season APEX 227.1Event APEX -4.4Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11486Chesterton Saints

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 7.29Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7188, 9252, 10612

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7188, 9252, 10612

Auto

46.7 38%

Teleop

55.6 45%

Endgame

21.7 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7769, 11493, 11486

/ 100 compat

Projected

273 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7769, 11493, 11486

Auto

49.9 19%

Teleop

150.4 56%

Endgame

69.2 26%

Strengths

· 7769 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.87 · Blue 2.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score121.5pts

Blue projected score273pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -151.5
Score range: 90–304
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 471 vs event baseline 171.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

274Season APEX679.3

46.7Auto49.9

55.6Teleop150.4

21.7Endgame69.2

87Consistency112

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	33
teleop	69	224
endgame	30	85
foul	15	0
total	129	342

Result

Final score

129 – 342

Prediction correct · off by 38.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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