FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

190.76 – 116.05

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

248 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 73.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 392.9 ±11.7

8115Platinum Peacocks

Season APEX 47Event APEX 37.54Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11361ORA Raven Bots

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 13.66Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 139.56Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 163.7 ±12.7

9651Ecorse Robo Raiders

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX 23.77Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9618Tronarchs

Season APEX 42Event APEX 28.35Rank 42Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9679Madison Eagles

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 63.93Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8115, 11361, 1498

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8115, 11361, 1498

Auto

58.0 31%

Teleop

93.5 49%

Endgame

37.6 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9651, 9618, 9679

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9651, 9618, 9679

Auto

22.8 20%

Teleop

64.3 57%

Endgame

24.8 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.14 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score190.8pts

Blue projected score116.1pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 74.7
Score range: 85–222
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 275 vs event baseline 172.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

392.9Season APEX163.7

58Auto22.8

93.5Teleop64.3

37.6Endgame24.8

3Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	14
teleop	134	9
endgame	65	4
foul	5	0
total	248	27

Result

Final score

248 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 73.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree