FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

235.52 – 188.53

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

301 – 203

Prediction correct · off by 40 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 443.7 ±11.2

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 88.12Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7716JLW Formula 01

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX -14.23Rank 43Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2851Crevolution

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 161.63Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 358.5 ±11.1

5478Pershing Doughbots

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX -14.55Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 173.34Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10652Mechanical MacGyvers

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 29.74Rank 28Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 226, 7716, 2851

/ 100 compat

Projected

235.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 226, 7716, 2851

Auto

15.5 6%

Teleop

157.4 66%

Endgame

65.7 28%

Strengths

· 2851 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5478, 201, 10652

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5478, 201, 10652

Auto

15.3 8%

Teleop

119.3 66%

Endgame

46.5 26%

Strengths

· 201 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.98 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score235.5pts

Blue projected score188.5pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 47
Score range: 158–267
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 504 vs event baseline 169.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

443.7Season APEX358.5

15.5Auto15.3

157.4Teleop119.3

65.7Endgame46.5

115Consistency179

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	28
teleop	199	76
endgame	43	79
foul	0	20
total	301	203

Result

Final score

301 – 203

Prediction correct · off by 40 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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