FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

115.45 – 104.77

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

168 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 35.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 438.9 ±11.7

573Mech Warriors

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 14.01Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8728Argonauts

Season APEX 129.1Event APEX 78Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9747ElectroPanthers II

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 23.44Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 218.3 ±12.7

4384Benzene Bots

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 38.2Rank 32Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9528The Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64.5Event APEX 43.64Rank 20Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

7762AutoPilots

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 22.93Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 573, 8728, 9747

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 573, 8728, 9747

Auto

5.3 5%

Teleop

66.7 61%

Endgame

37.2 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4384, 9528, 7762

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4384, 9528, 7762

Auto

23.6 23%

Teleop

29.5 29%

Endgame

47.8 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score115.5pts

Blue projected score104.8pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.7
Score range: 74–146
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 254 vs event baseline 170.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

438.9Season APEX218.3

5.3Auto23.6

66.7Teleop29.5

37.2Endgame47.8

27Consistency142

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	16
teleop	72	45
endgame	46	25
foul	25	0
total	168	86

Result

Final score

168 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 35.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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