FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

392.42 – 125.38

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

418 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 57.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 718.3 ±8.7

4362Gems

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 160.4Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

33Killer Bees

Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 170.73Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 61.29Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 177.7 ±13.9

4768Cody "The Green Comet"

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 58.28Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5197Northwestern High

Season APEX 73.6Event APEX 30.57Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5065Knights #5065

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 36.53Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4362, 33, 3175

/ 100 compat

Projected

392.4 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4362, 33, 3175

Auto

49.3 12%

Teleop

264.1 67%

Endgame

81.1 21%

Strengths

· 33 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4768, 5197, 5065

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.4 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4768, 5197, 5065

Auto

40.6 34%

Teleop

17.6 15%

Endgame

60.4 51%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.8 · Blue 0.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score392.4pts

Blue projected score125.4pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 267
Score range: 95–422
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 454 vs event baseline 168.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

718.3Season APEX177.7

49.3Auto40.6

264.1Teleop17.6

81.1Endgame60.4

97Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	20
teleop	213	6
endgame	160	5
foul	0	5
total	418	36

Result

Final score

418 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 57.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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