FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

46.48 – 184.12

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

81 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 48.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 211 ±12.7

10652Mechanical MacGyvers

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 17.78Rank 28Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5197Northwestern High

Season APEX 73.6Event APEX 19.03Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9651Ecorse Robo Raiders

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX 9.67Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 441.1 ±11.2

10665Unibots

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 9.81Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX 111.4Rank 10Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7188SaddleBots

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 62.91Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10652, 5197, 9651

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10652, 5197, 9651

Auto

19.7 42%

Teleop

10.8 23%

Endgame

16.7 35%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10665, 469, 7188

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.1 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10665, 469, 7188

Auto

34.6 19%

Teleop

106.3 58%

Endgame

41.6 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.91 · Blue 2.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score46.5pts

Blue projected score184.1pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -137.6
Score range: 10–220
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 203 vs event baseline 201.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

211Season APEX441.1

19.7Auto34.6

10.8Teleop106.3

16.7Endgame41.6

18Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	56
teleop	28	48
endgame	19	18
foul	15	0
total	81	122

Result

Final score

81 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 48.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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