FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

81.39 – 72.72

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

75 – 77

Prediction missed · off by 5.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 204.2 ±13.3

9252Wingspan

Season APEX 45.5Event APEX 23.13Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5436Cyber Cats

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 45.18Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11486Chesterton Saints

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 13.08Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 143.2 ±13.9

3302TurboTrojans

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 60.65Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8364Rising Stars Academy - Nebulas

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 25.23Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4998TESLA

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX -13.16Rank 37Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9252, 5436, 11486

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9252, 5436, 11486

Auto

43.9 55%

Teleop

-10.4 0%

Endgame

45.9 58%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3302, 8364, 4998

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3302, 8364, 4998

Auto

30.2 41%

Teleop

22.9 31%

Endgame

21.2 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score81.4pts

Blue projected score72.7pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.7
Score range: 42–112
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 152 vs event baseline 172.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

204.2Season APEX143.2

43.9Auto30.2

-10.4Teleop22.9

45.9Endgame21.2

125Consistency157

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	26
teleop	28	32
endgame	22	19
foul	0	0
total	75	77

Result

Final score

75 – 77

Prediction missed · off by 5.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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