FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

225.57 – 246.45

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

255 – 328

Prediction correct · off by 55.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 550.3 ±9.9

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 82.5Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 126.7Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9651Ecorse Robo Raiders

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX 16.37Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 522.2 ±12.4

7813New Haven RoboRaptors

Season APEX 41Event APEX -7.29Rank 26Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 252.85Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11361ORA Raven Bots

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 0.89Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9245, 1498, 9651

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9245, 1498, 9651

Auto

45.2 20%

Teleop

146.8 66%

Endgame

29.1 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7813, 7769, 11361

/ 100 compat

Projected

246.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7813, 7769, 11361

Auto

25.4 10%

Teleop

154.3 63%

Endgame

66.8 27%

Strengths

· 7769 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score225.6pts

Blue projected score246.5pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.9
Score range: 196–276
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 583 vs event baseline 167.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

550.3Season APEX522.2

45.2Auto25.4

146.8Teleop154.3

29.1Endgame66.8

42Consistency165

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	61
teleop	147	224
endgame	29	43
foul	0	0
total	255	328

Result

Final score

255 – 328

Prediction correct · off by 55.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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