FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

200.3 – 181.5

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

327 – 195

Prediction correct · off by 70.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 403.5 ±12.4

2851Crevolution

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 126.22Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4961Shock and Awe-sum

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 35.09Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5527Cyber Phoenix

Season APEX 71.7Event APEX 38.99Rank 19Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 352.1 ±11

7188SaddleBots

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 52.75Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 88.24Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8115Platinum Peacocks

Season APEX 47Event APEX 40.51Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2851, 4961, 5527

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2851, 4961, 5527

Auto

27.0 13%

Teleop

126.3 61%

Endgame

52.9 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7188, 226, 8115

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7188, 226, 8115

Auto

26.3 14%

Teleop

107.3 58%

Endgame

52.4 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score200.3pts

Blue projected score181.5pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 18.8
Score range: 152–230
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 522 vs event baseline 164.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

403.5Season APEX352.1

27Auto26.3

126.3Teleop107.3

52.9Endgame52.4

56Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	37
teleop	222	100
endgame	61	58
foul	0	0
total	327	195

Result

Final score

327 – 195

Prediction correct · off by 70.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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