FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

132.73 – 238.66

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

118 – 269

Prediction correct · off by 22.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 232 ±12.1

10652Mechanical MacGyvers

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 11.7Rank 28Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4384Benzene Bots

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 59.29Rank 32Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

10612Cougear

Season APEX 77Event APEX 61.74Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 451.2 ±11.7

9747ElectroPanthers II

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 28.36Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5860Full Metal Muskrats

Season APEX 103.3Event APEX 19.61Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 190.69Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10652, 4384, 10612

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10652, 4384, 10612

Auto

16.3 14%

Teleop

73.4 63%

Endgame

26.2 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9747, 5860, 201

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.7 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9747, 5860, 201

Auto

24.6 11%

Teleop

143.1 65%

Endgame

53.8 24%

Strengths

· 201 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.98 · Blue 2.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score132.7pts

Blue projected score238.7pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -105.9
Score range: 104–268
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 387 vs event baseline 162.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

232Season APEX451.2

16.3Auto24.6

73.4Teleop143.1

26.2Endgame53.8

89Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	43
teleop	43	152
endgame	51	59
foul	0	15
total	118	269

Result

Final score

118 – 269

Prediction correct · off by 22.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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