FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

117.32 – 180.93

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

96 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 22.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 316.9 ±12.4

9528The Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64.5Event APEX 65.8Rank 20Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9618Tronarchs

Season APEX 42Event APEX 26.97Rank 42Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

573Mech Warriors

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 24.55Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 523.5 ±11.2

10665Unibots

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 19.57Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11493Pixel Knights

Season APEX 227.1Event APEX -6.13Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

33Killer Bees

Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 167.49Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9528, 9618, 573

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9528, 9618, 573

Auto

14.9 13%

Teleop

82.3 69%

Endgame

21.5 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10665, 11493, 33

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10665, 11493, 33

Auto

50.3 28%

Teleop

113.5 63%

Endgame

17.0 9%

Strengths

· 33 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score117.3pts

Blue projected score180.9pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -63.6
Score range: 88–210
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 301 vs event baseline 163.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

316.9Season APEX523.5

14.9Auto50.3

82.3Teleop113.5

21.5Endgame17

76Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	17
teleop	39	150
endgame	41	38
foul	0	0
total	96	205

Result

Final score

96 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 22.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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