FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

64.8 – 86.93

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

37 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 34.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 140.5 ±13.3

7716JLW Formula 01

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 3.45Rank 43Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9679Madison Eagles

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 68.95Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4998TESLA

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX -7.6Rank 37Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 198 ±12.7

4768Cody "The Green Comet"

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 77.65Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5478Pershing Doughbots

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX -3.34Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5531Orange Crush

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 12.62Rank 12Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7716, 9679, 4998

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7716, 9679, 4998

Auto

3.5 6%

Teleop

55.6 88%

Endgame

4.1 6%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4768, 5478, 5531

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4768, 5478, 5531

Auto

17.8 19%

Teleop

44.4 47%

Endgame

33.2 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score64.8pts

Blue projected score86.9pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.1
Score range: 35–117
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 82 vs event baseline 169.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

140.5Season APEX198

3.5Auto17.8

55.6Teleop44.4

4.1Endgame33.2

149Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	19
teleop	6	11
endgame	13	15
foul	0	0
total	37	45

Result

Final score

37 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 34.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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