FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

203.97 – 36.74

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

212 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 48.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 321.4 ±12.4

5065Knights #5065

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 41.1Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4362Gems

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 155.21Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5467RoboTractors

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 7.66Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 406.2 ±11.1

5436Cyber Cats

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 23.59Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7762AutoPilots

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 5.95Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX 7.2Rank 10Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5065, 4362, 5467

/ 100 compat

Projected

204 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5065, 4362, 5467

Auto

36.8 18%

Teleop

117.7 57%

Endgame

52.5 25%

Strengths

· 4362 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5436, 7762, 469

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5436, 7762, 469

Auto

23.4 94%

Teleop

-19.7 0%

Endgame

21.2 85%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.36 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score204pts

Blue projected score36.7pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 167.2
Score range: 7–234
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 337 vs event baseline 169.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

321.4Season APEX406.2

36.8Auto23.4

117.7Teleop-19.7

52.5Endgame21.2

17Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	58
teleop	91	34
endgame	44	28
foul	15	5
total	212	125

Result

Final score

212 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 48.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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