FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

195.15 – 82.66

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

255 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 73.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 452.8 ±11.7

5197Northwestern High

Season APEX 73.6Event APEX 35.87Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8728Argonauts

Season APEX 129.1Event APEX 43.6Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 115.68Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 354.9 ±12.4

9252Wingspan

Season APEX 45.5Event APEX 25.43Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4961Shock and Awe-sum

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 15.8Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 41.43Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5197, 8728, 1498

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.2 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5197, 8728, 1498

Auto

55.5 29%

Teleop

96.7 50%

Endgame

39.3 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9252, 4961, 3175

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9252, 4961, 3175

Auto

16.5 21%

Teleop

40.5 52%

Endgame

20.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.37 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score195.2pts

Blue projected score82.7pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 112.5
Score range: 53–225
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 424 vs event baseline 166.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

452.8Season APEX354.9

55.5Auto16.5

96.7Teleop40.5

39.3Endgame20.5

25Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	34
teleop	137	80
endgame	51	55
foul	5	0
total	255	169

Result

Final score

255 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 73.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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