FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

91.13 – 221.78

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

68 – 36

Prediction missed · off by 104.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 347.5 ±12.2

10612Cougear

Season APEX 77Event APEX 75.03Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11493Pixel Knights

Season APEX 227.1Event APEX 10.88Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8364Rising Stars Academy - Nebulas

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 5.22Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 329.3 ±11.1

9651Ecorse Robo Raiders

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX 56.97Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

573Mech Warriors

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 70.25Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8115Platinum Peacocks

Season APEX 47Event APEX 94.56Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10612, 11493, 8364

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10612, 11493, 8364

Auto

35.3 39%

Teleop

38.8 43%

Endgame

15.5 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9651, 573, 8115

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9651, 573, 8115

Auto

34.4 16%

Teleop

121.2 57%

Endgame

56.5 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.85 · Blue 2.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score91.1pts

Blue projected score221.8pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -130.6
Score range: 62–251
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 104 vs event baseline 159.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

347.5Season APEX329.3

35.3Auto34.4

38.8Teleop121.2

15.5Endgame56.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	12
teleop	26	6
endgame	13	18
foul	5	0
total	68	36

Result

Final score

68 – 36

Prediction missed · off by 104.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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