FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

447.95 – 136.34

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

364 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 74.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 619.3 ±9.3

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 107.85Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4362Gems

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 198.63Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 141.47Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 247.1 ±12.7

11486Chesterton Saints

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 23.02Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10612Cougear

Season APEX 77Event APEX 45.97Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5860Full Metal Muskrats

Season APEX 103.3Event APEX 67.35Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 226, 4362, 9245

/ 100 compat

Projected

448 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 226, 4362, 9245

Auto

78.6 18%

Teleop

264.1 60%

Endgame

100.3 23%

Strengths

· 4362 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11486, 10612, 5860

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.3 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11486, 10612, 5860

Auto

35.1 26%

Teleop

69.8 52%

Endgame

28.1 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.83 · Blue 0.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score448pts

Blue projected score136.3pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 311.6
Score range: 100–484
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 436 vs event baseline 201.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

619.3Season APEX247.1

78.6Auto35.1

264.1Teleop69.8

100.3Endgame28.1

39Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	29
teleop	252	8
endgame	81	10
foul	0	25
total	364	72

Result

Final score

364 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 74.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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