FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 112.1

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

65 – 55

Prediction missed · off by 61.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 178.2 ±13.3

4998TESLA

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX -5.86Rank 37Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11486Chesterton Saints

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX -6.77Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7762AutoPilots

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX -14.74Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 177.5 ±13.3

7716JLW Formula 01

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 8.57Rank 43Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5436Cyber Cats

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 53.58Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9618Tronarchs

Season APEX 42Event APEX 49.95Rank 42Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4998, 11486, 7762

/ 100 compat

Projected

-27.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4998, 11486, 7762

Auto

-6.5 12%

Teleop

-41.2 74%

Endgame

-7.7 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7716, 5436, 9618

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7716, 5436, 9618

Auto

38.7 34%

Teleop

39.3 35%

Endgame

35.8 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.88 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score-27.4pts

Blue projected score112.1pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -112.1
Score range: -30–142
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 120 vs event baseline 169.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

178.2Season APEX177.5

-6.5Auto38.7

-41.2Teleop39.3

-7.7Endgame35.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	25
teleop	19	14
endgame	25	16
foul	0	0
total	65	55

Result

Final score

65 – 55

Prediction missed · off by 61.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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