FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

112.86 – 294.08

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

193 – 374

Prediction correct · off by 80 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 334.9 ±11.7

5065Knights #5065

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 35.75Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5478Pershing Doughbots

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 12.26Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX 64.85Rank 10Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 581.5 ±9.9

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 66.1Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 135.94Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8728Argonauts

Season APEX 129.1Event APEX 92.04Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5065, 5478, 469

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5065, 5478, 469

Auto

45.4 47%

Teleop

23.2 24%

Endgame

28.8 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3175, 9245, 8728

/ 100 compat

Projected

294.1 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3175, 9245, 8728

Auto

48.2 17%

Teleop

178.1 61%

Endgame

63.3 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.82 · Blue 2.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score112.9pts

Blue projected score294.1pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -181.2
Score range: 81–326
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 567 vs event baseline 178.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

334.9Season APEX581.5

45.4Auto48.2

23.2Teleop178.1

28.8Endgame63.3

31Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	73
teleop	137	214
endgame	15	87
foul	0	0
total	193	374

Result

Final score

193 – 374

Prediction correct · off by 80 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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