FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

145.76 – 136.67

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

215 – 356

Prediction missed · off by 144.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 359.7 ±12.4

2851Crevolution

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 84.95Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10665Unibots

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 46.16Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5197Northwestern High

Season APEX 73.6Event APEX 14.65Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 364.2 ±11.1

4362Gems

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 106.49Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10612Cougear

Season APEX 77Event APEX 14.84Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9679Madison Eagles

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 15.34Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2851, 10665, 5197

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2851, 10665, 5197

Auto

33.9 25%

Teleop

69.1 52%

Endgame

30.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4362, 10612, 9679

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4362, 10612, 9679

Auto

21.1 18%

Teleop

66.8 56%

Endgame

31.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score145.8pts

Blue projected score136.7pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.1
Score range: 108–175
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 571 vs event baseline 159.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

359.7Season APEX364.2

33.9Auto21.1

69.1Teleop66.8

30.9Endgame31.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	57
teleop	115	224
endgame	49	75
foul	0	0
total	215	356

Result

Final score

215 – 356

Prediction missed · off by 144.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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