FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

231.44 – 92.58

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

140 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 53.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 247.3 ±12.8

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 95.7Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7813New Haven RoboRaptors

Season APEX 41Event APEX 29.58Rank 26Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

3302TurboTrojans

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 106.16Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 297.4 ±12.4

7716JLW Formula 01

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 6.37Rank 43Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

573Mech Warriors

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 83.43Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8364Rising Stars Academy - Nebulas

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 2.78Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 226, 7813, 3302

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.4 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 226, 7813, 3302

Auto

32.1 14%

Teleop

151.4 65%

Endgame

48.3 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7716, 573, 8364

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7716, 573, 8364

Auto

11.3 12%

Teleop

62.2 66%

Endgame

20.7 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.4 · Blue 0.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score231.4pts

Blue projected score92.6pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 138.9
Score range: 63–261
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 217 vs event baseline 166.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

247.3Season APEX297.4

32.1Auto11.3

151.4Teleop62.2

48.3Endgame20.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	23
teleop	96	38
endgame	32	11
foul	0	5
total	140	77

Result

Final score

140 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 53.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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