FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

122.43 – 46.38

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

297 – 155

Prediction correct · off by 141.6 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 362.2 ±12.4

9618Tronarchs

Season APEX 42Event APEX 12.15Rank 42Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 102.86Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5527Cyber Phoenix

Season APEX 71.7Event APEX 7.42Rank 19Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 241.4 ±12.7

5065Knights #5065

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 15.43Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8728Argonauts

Season APEX 129.1Event APEX -1.08Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9651Ecorse Robo Raiders

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX 32.03Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9618, 201, 5527

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9618, 201, 5527

Auto

14.7 12%

Teleop

79.8 66%

Endgame

27.0 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5065, 8728, 9651

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5065, 8728, 9651

Auto

9.7 23%

Teleop

20.6 48%

Endgame

12.5 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.05 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score122.4pts

Blue projected score46.4pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 76.1
Score range: 17–151
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 452 vs event baseline 161.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

362.2Season APEX241.4

14.7Auto9.7

79.8Teleop20.6

27Endgame12.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	25
teleop	192	76
endgame	70	49
foul	0	5
total	297	155

Result

Final score

297 – 155

Prediction correct · off by 141.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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