FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

71.83 – 87.39

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

87 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 14.4 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 263.6 ±13.3

11361ORA Raven Bots

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 14Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5860Full Metal Muskrats

Season APEX 103.3Event APEX 19.54Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9528The Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64.5Event APEX 38.29Rank 20Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 422.7 ±11.2

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 38.29Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4998TESLA

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 9.14Rank 37Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7188SaddleBots

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 39.96Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11361, 5860, 9528

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 11361, 5860, 9528

Auto

13.3 21%

Teleop

35.1 54%

Endgame

16.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3175, 4998, 7188

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3175, 4998, 7188

Auto

24.5 26%

Teleop

50.3 54%

Endgame

18.6 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score71.8pts

Blue projected score87.4pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.6
Score range: 42–117
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 188 vs event baseline 168.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

263.6Season APEX422.7

13.3Auto24.5

35.1Teleop50.3

16.3Endgame18.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	10
teleop	47	61
endgame	22	30
foul	5	0
total	87	101

Result

Final score

87 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 14.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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