FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

225.4 – 41.01

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

277 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 30.3 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 528.7 ±10.7

33Killer Bees

Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 113.71Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5467RoboTractors

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 5.34Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 106.35Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 196.6 ±13.3

5478Pershing Doughbots

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 11.22Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4961Shock and Awe-sum

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 9.22Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11486Chesterton Saints

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 20.57Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 33, 5467, 9245

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.4 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 33, 5467, 9245

Auto

33.0 15%

Teleop

154.0 69%

Endgame

37.5 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5478, 4961, 11486

/ 100 compat

Projected

41 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5478, 4961, 11486

Auto

20.5 50%

Teleop

14.0 34%

Endgame

6.7 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.47 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score225.4pts

Blue projected score41pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 184.4
Score range: 11–255
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 327 vs event baseline 168.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

528.7Season APEX196.6

33Auto20.5

154Teleop14

37.5Endgame6.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	27
teleop	217	9
endgame	18	14
foul	0	0
total	277	50

Result

Final score

277 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 30.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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