FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

517.04 – 394.42

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

629 – 429

Prediction correct · off by 73.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 672.6 ±9.9

9679Madison Eagles

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 18.25Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4362Gems

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 193.36Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 305.43Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 582.3 ±9.9

10612Cougear

Season APEX 77Event APEX 42.96Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

33Killer Bees

Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 177.17Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 174.29Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9679, 4362, 7769

/ 100 compat

Projected

517 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9679, 4362, 7769

Auto

86.6 17%

Teleop

302.1 60%

Endgame

116.8 23%

Strengths

· 7769 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10612, 33, 201

/ 100 compat

Projected

394.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10612, 33, 201

Auto

69.2 18%

Teleop

216.6 56%

Endgame

101.5 26%

Strengths

· 33 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.33 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score517pts

Blue projected score394.4pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 122.6
Score range: 359–552
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1058 vs event baseline 195.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

672.6Season APEX582.3

86.6Auto69.2

302.1Teleop216.6

116.8Endgame101.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	121	23
teleop	295	244
endgame	198	157
foul	15	5
total	629	429

Result

Final score

629 – 429

Prediction correct · off by 73.3 pts

Match videos

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