FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

335.82 – 135.86

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

327 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 29.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 604.4 ±8.8

2224RoboPhoenix

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 20.81Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 127.81Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1701Robocubs

A+

Season APEX 301.3Event APEX 187.2Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 255.6 ±11.6

5531Orange Crush

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 47.84Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9558The Steel Vipers

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 47.42Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

217ThunderChickens

Season APEX 104.4Event APEX 40.6Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2224, 503, 1701

/ 100 compat

Projected

335.8 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2224, 503, 1701

Auto

78.2 24%

Teleop

182.4 55%

Endgame

70.3 21%

Strengths

· 1701 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5531, 9558, 217

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.9 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5531, 9558, 217

Auto

36.2 27%

Teleop

59.3 45%

Endgame

37.0 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.39 · Blue 0.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score335.8pts

Blue projected score135.9pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 200
Score range: 107–365
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 513 vs event baseline 158.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

604.4Season APEX255.6

78.2Auto36.2

182.4Teleop59.3

70.3Endgame37

0Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	103	43
teleop	171	75
endgame	53	63
foul	0	5
total	327	186

Result

Final score

327 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 29.5 pts

Match videos

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