Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
252.76 – 273.26
44%56%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
256 – 279
Prediction correct · off by 4.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 391.9 ±10.5
Season APEX 161.7Event APEX 129.18Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 5.52Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 118.06Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 435.3 ±10.5
Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 110.77Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 29.77Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 237Event APEX 132.72Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1025, 9679, 8280
82
/ 100 compatProjected
252.8 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 1025, 9679, 8280
Auto
36.7 15%
Teleop
143.5 59%
Endgame
64.2 26%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7188, 2591, 51
82
/ 100 compatProjected
273.3 pts
~1.8 RP (district)
Teams: 7188, 2591, 51
Auto
37.5 14%
Teleop
160.3 60%
Endgame
67.9 26%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.77
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score252.8pts
Blue projected score273.3pts
Red win probability44%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 55%, blue 60%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -20.5
- Score range
- 225–301
- Upset likelihood
- 44%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
391.9Season APEX435.3
36.7Auto37.5
143.5Teleop160.3
64.2Endgame67.9
49Consistency56
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 45 | 21 |
| teleop | 137 | 174 |
| endgame | 69 | 84 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 256 | 279 |
Result
Final score
256 – 279
Prediction correct · off by 4.5 pts
Match videos
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