FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

351.91 – 254.52

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

257 – 310

Prediction missed · off by 75.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 604.4 ±8.8

2224RoboPhoenix

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 26.48Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 133.43Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1701Robocubs

A+

Season APEX 301.3Event APEX 192Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 524.8 ±9.9

6616Mechanical Pumas

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 38.16Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 102.46Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2960Automation Nation

Season APEX 257Event APEX 113.9Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2224, 503, 1701

/ 100 compat

Projected

351.9 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2224, 503, 1701

Auto

79.5 23%

Teleop

196.4 56%

Endgame

74.3 21%

Strengths

· 1701 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6616, 10349, 2960

/ 100 compat

Projected

254.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6616, 10349, 2960

Auto

46.1 18%

Teleop

157.9 62%

Endgame

50.0 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.09 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score351.9pts

Blue projected score254.5pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 97.4
Score range: 227–380
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 567 vs event baseline 156.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

604.4Season APEX524.8

79.5Auto46.1

196.4Teleop157.9

74.3Endgame50

0Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	72	75
teleop	114	193
endgame	51	37
foul	20	5
total	257	310

Result

Final score

257 – 310

Prediction missed · off by 75.2 pts

Match videos

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