FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

137 – 129.79

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

165 – 168

Prediction missed · off by 33.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 258 ±11.6

8352CODE Gold

Season APEX 105.2Event APEX 58.78Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7196Tech Tigers

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 53.85Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10690ERROR 448

Season APEX 68.1Event APEX 24.37Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 255.6 ±11.6

217ThunderChickens

Season APEX 104.4Event APEX 38.92Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9558The Steel Vipers

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 45.72Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5531Orange Crush

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 45.15Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8352, 7196, 10690

/ 100 compat

Projected

137 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8352, 7196, 10690

Auto

28.2 22%

Teleop

74.3 59%

Endgame

23.6 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 217, 9558, 5531

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 217, 9558, 5531

Auto

36.0 29%

Teleop

55.0 44%

Endgame

34.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score137pts

Blue projected score129.8pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.2
Score range: 102–165
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 333 vs event baseline 156.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

258Season APEX255.6

28.2Auto36

74.3Teleop55

23.6Endgame34.7

28Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	38
teleop	77	81
endgame	38	49
foul	15	0
total	165	168

Result

Final score

165 – 168

Prediction missed · off by 33.1 pts

Match videos

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