FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

116.14 – 228.87

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

127 – 204

Prediction correct · off by 17.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 195.1 ±12.7

5695Heavy Duty Eagles

Season APEX 74.1Event APEX 52.67Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5756REC'in Crew

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 35.59Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3667Mecanum Knights

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 27.88Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 387.8 ±11.2

9212Infinity

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX 24.58Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 91.67Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

818The Steel Armadillos

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 112.62Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5695, 5756, 3667

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5695, 5756, 3667

Auto

24.7 23%

Teleop

48.6 45%

Endgame

34.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9212, 247, 818

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.9 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9212, 247, 818

Auto

36.0 16%

Teleop

127.0 57%

Endgame

58.2 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.92 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score116.1pts

Blue projected score228.9pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -112.7
Score range: 88–257
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 331 vs event baseline 155.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

195.1Season APEX387.8

24.7Auto36

48.6Teleop127

34.5Endgame58.2

25Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	38
teleop	59	140
endgame	48	26
foul	0	0
total	127	204

Result

Final score

127 – 204

Prediction correct · off by 17.9 pts

Match videos

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