FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

279.5 – 134.69

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

250 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 28.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 435.3 ±10.5

7188SaddleBots

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 113.41Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2591RedTails

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 31.86Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 134.23Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 255.6 ±11.6

217ThunderChickens

Season APEX 104.4Event APEX 40.37Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9558The Steel Vipers

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 47.6Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5531Orange Crush

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 46.72Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7188, 2591, 51

/ 100 compat

Projected

279.5 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7188, 2591, 51

Auto

41.9 15%

Teleop

168.6 61%

Endgame

63.7 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 217, 9558, 5531

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 217, 9558, 5531

Auto

34.7 27%

Teleop

56.8 44%

Endgame

37.9 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.36 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score279.5pts

Blue projected score134.7pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 144.8
Score range: 107–308
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 357 vs event baseline 155.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

435.3Season APEX255.6

41.9Auto34.7

168.6Teleop56.8

63.7Endgame37.9

54Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	39
teleop	129	44
endgame	84	24
foul	15	0
total	250	107

Result

Final score

250 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 28.6 pts

Match videos

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