FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

257.61 – 251.72

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

226 – 262

Prediction missed · off by 20.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 394.8 ±10.5

2673Tenacious Technicians

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 49.07Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 93.94Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

818The Steel Armadillos

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 114.6Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 524.8 ±9.9

6616Mechanical Pumas

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 37.43Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 101.52Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2960Automation Nation

Season APEX 257Event APEX 112.77Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2673, 247, 818

/ 100 compat

Projected

257.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2673, 247, 818

Auto

40.9 17%

Teleop

145.0 59%

Endgame

60.7 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6616, 10349, 2960

/ 100 compat

Projected

251.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6616, 10349, 2960

Auto

43.7 17%

Teleop

154.9 62%

Endgame

52.6 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score257.6pts

Blue projected score251.7pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.9
Score range: 224–286
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 488 vs event baseline 154.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

394.8Season APEX524.8

40.9Auto43.7

145Teleop154.9

60.7Endgame52.6

50Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	55
teleop	137	166
endgame	44	41
foul	0	0
total	226	262

Result

Final score

226 – 262

Prediction missed · off by 20.9 pts

Match videos

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