FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

262.14 – 339.22

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

186 – 343

Prediction correct · off by 40 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 524.8 ±9.9

6616Mechanical Pumas

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 40.4Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 104.34Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2960Automation Nation

Season APEX 257Event APEX 117.4Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 604.4 ±8.8

2224RoboPhoenix

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 22.02Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 129.56Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1701Robocubs

A+

Season APEX 301.3Event APEX 187.64Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6616, 10349, 2960

/ 100 compat

Projected

262.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6616, 10349, 2960

Auto

51.4 20%

Teleop

167.1 64%

Endgame

42.5 16%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2224, 503, 1701

/ 100 compat

Projected

339.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2224, 503, 1701

Auto

85.1 25%

Teleop

182.2 54%

Endgame

67.6 20%

Strengths

· 1701 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.13 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score262.1pts

Blue projected score339.2pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -77.1
Score range: 232–369
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 529 vs event baseline 164.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

524.8Season APEX604.4

51.4Auto85.1

167.1Teleop182.2

42.5Endgame67.6

10Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	28
teleop	121	207
endgame	34	108
foul	0	0
total	186	343

Result

Final score

186 – 343

Prediction correct · off by 40 pts

Match videos

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