FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

262.14 – 333.85

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

223 – 376

Prediction correct · off by 40.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 391.9 ±10.5

9679Madison Eagles

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 8.5Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1025Impi Warriors

Season APEX 161.7Event APEX 132.77Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8280K9.0 Robotics

Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 120.87Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 604.4 ±8.8

2224RoboPhoenix

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 20.34Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 127.77Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1701Robocubs

A+

Season APEX 301.3Event APEX 185.74Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9679, 1025, 8280

/ 100 compat

Projected

262.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9679, 1025, 8280

Auto

39.5 16%

Teleop

147.9 59%

Endgame

65.2 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2224, 503, 1701

/ 100 compat

Projected

333.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2224, 503, 1701

Auto

81.7 25%

Teleop

180.4 55%

Endgame

67.5 20%

Strengths

· 1701 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score262.1pts

Blue projected score333.9pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -71.7
Score range: 233–363
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 599 vs event baseline 162.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

391.9Season APEX604.4

39.5Auto81.7

147.9Teleop180.4

65.2Endgame67.5

36Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	109
teleop	99	194
endgame	62	68
foul	0	5
total	223	376

Result

Final score

223 – 376

Prediction correct · off by 40.6 pts

Match videos

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