FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

262.77 – 273.2

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

259 – 344

Prediction correct · off by 37.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 524.8 ±9.9

6616Mechanical Pumas

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 40.21Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 104.49Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2960Automation Nation

Season APEX 257Event APEX 118.07Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 435.3 ±10.5

7188SaddleBots

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 110.48Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2591RedTails

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 29.54Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 133.18Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6616, 10349, 2960

/ 100 compat

Projected

262.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6616, 10349, 2960

Auto

50.5 19%

Teleop

163.3 62%

Endgame

47.7 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7188, 2591, 51

/ 100 compat

Projected

273.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7188, 2591, 51

Auto

34.3 13%

Teleop

162.3 61%

Endgame

70.3 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score262.8pts

Blue projected score273.2pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.4
Score range: 234–302
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 603 vs event baseline 161.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

524.8Season APEX435.3

50.5Auto34.3

163.3Teleop162.3

47.7Endgame70.3

7Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	22
teleop	189	184
endgame	12	133
foul	0	5
total	259	344

Result

Final score

259 – 344

Prediction correct · off by 37.3 pts

Match videos

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