FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

217.02 – 67.68

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

426 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 141.1 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 792.2 ±8.1

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 31.43Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1701Robocubs

A+

Season APEX 301.3Event APEX 121.88Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2960Automation Nation

Season APEX 257Event APEX 63.71Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 294 ±11.7

818The Steel Armadillos

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 42.57Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4758RoboBlazers

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 22Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9679Madison Eagles

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 3.11Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 503, 1701, 2960

/ 100 compat

Projected

217 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 503, 1701, 2960

Auto

27.5 13%

Teleop

126.1 61%

Endgame

54.3 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 818, 4758, 9679

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 818, 4758, 9679

Auto

16.2 28%

Teleop

26.2 46%

Endgame

14.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.43 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score217pts

Blue projected score67.7pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 149.3
Score range: 42–243
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 567 vs event baseline 147.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

792.2Season APEX294

27.5Auto16.2

126.1Teleop26.2

54.3Endgame14.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	27
teleop	268	76
endgame	97	38
foul	0	0
total	426	141

Result

Final score

426 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 141.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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