FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 80

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

93.27 – 320.69

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

103 – 407

Prediction correct · off by 48 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 209.1 ±12.7

6616Mechanical Pumas

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 34.92Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5531Orange Crush

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 48.64Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5901BattleCats

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 9.71Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 582.8 ±10.7

11473Wixom Christian Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 21.73Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 128.01Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1701Robocubs

A+

Season APEX 301.3Event APEX 170.95Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6616, 5531, 5901

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6616, 5531, 5901

Auto

12.8 13%

Teleop

56.2 58%

Endgame

27.5 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11473, 51, 1701

/ 100 compat

Projected

320.7 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11473, 51, 1701

Auto

64.3 20%

Teleop

178.7 56%

Endgame

78.6 24%

Strengths

· 1701 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.67 · Blue 2.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score93.3pts

Blue projected score320.7pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -227.4
Score range: 66–348
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 510 vs event baseline 151.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

209.1Season APEX582.8

12.8Auto64.3

56.2Teleop178.7

27.5Endgame78.6

17Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	89
teleop	68	260
endgame	10	43
foul	0	15
total	103	407

Result

Final score

103 – 407

Prediction correct · off by 48 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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