FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

152.29 – 113.82

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

155 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 5.9 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 311 ±12.2

9727Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 64.6Event APEX 4.57Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1025Impi Warriors

Season APEX 161.7Event APEX 122.29Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7196Tech Tigers

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 25.43Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 371.5 ±11.7

5531Orange Crush

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 44.89Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 64.36Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6566Battering Rams

Season APEX 44.7Event APEX 4.57Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9727, 1025, 7196

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9727, 1025, 7196

Auto

20.3 14%

Teleop

93.7 64%

Endgame

32.6 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5531, 51, 6566

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5531, 51, 6566

Auto

11.4 10%

Teleop

53.6 47%

Endgame

49.3 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score152.3pts

Blue projected score113.8pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 38.5
Score range: 87–179
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 278 vs event baseline 148.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

311Season APEX371.5

20.3Auto11.4

93.7Teleop53.6

32.6Endgame49.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	26
teleop	90	56
endgame	31	41
foul	0	0
total	155	123

Result

Final score

155 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 5.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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