FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 79

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

41.44 – 83.39

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

36 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 22.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 152.1 ±13.9

3096The Village Bulldogs

Season APEX 46Event APEX 14.39Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5239The Royal Stags

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 8.01Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6566Battering Rams

Season APEX 44.7Event APEX 19.04Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 165.7 ±13.9

7716JLW Formula 01

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 13.99Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3619BLACKHAWKS

Season APEX 48Event APEX 18.91Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5695Heavy Duty Eagles

Season APEX 74.1Event APEX 50.49Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3096, 5239, 6566

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3096, 5239, 6566

Auto

6.6 19%

Teleop

10.9 31%

Endgame

17.8 50%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7716, 3619, 5695

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7716, 3619, 5695

Auto

17.2 23%

Teleop

35.0 46%

Endgame

24.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score41.4pts

Blue projected score83.4pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41.9
Score range: 14–110
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 159 vs event baseline 152.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

152.1Season APEX165.7

6.6Auto17.2

10.9Teleop35

17.8Endgame24.1

42Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	14
teleop	15	59
endgame	2	50
foul	0	0
total	36	123

Result

Final score

36 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 22.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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