FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

139.97 – 122.3

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

193 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 30.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 339 ±12

4851JungleBots

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 19.72Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11461SW Phoenix

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 4.38Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 115.87Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 168.5 ±12.1

9558The Steel Vipers

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 49.13Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2591RedTails

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 32.27Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5756REC'in Crew

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 40.9Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4851, 11461, 503

/ 100 compat

Projected

140 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4851, 11461, 503

Auto

33.8 24%

Teleop

82.3 59%

Endgame

24.4 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9558, 2591, 5756

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9558, 2591, 5756

Auto

34.4 30%

Teleop

52.5 46%

Endgame

26.2 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score140pts

Blue projected score122.3pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.7
Score range: 95–167
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 307 vs event baseline 150.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

339Season APEX168.5

33.8Auto34.4

82.3Teleop52.5

24.4Endgame26.2

12Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	49
teleop	89	21
endgame	53	24
foul	0	20
total	193	114

Result

Final score

193 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 30.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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