FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

83.98 – 150.49

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

149 – 62

Prediction missed · off by 76.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 263.4 ±11

5531Orange Crush

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 43.04Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2224RoboPhoenix

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 5.52Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

217ThunderChickens

Season APEX 104.4Event APEX 35.42Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 367.6 ±12.4

3096The Village Bulldogs

Season APEX 46Event APEX 24.08Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2960Automation Nation

Season APEX 257Event APEX 122.17Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9727Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 64.6Event APEX 4.24Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5531, 2224, 217

/ 100 compat

Projected

84 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5531, 2224, 217

Auto

19.9 23%

Teleop

33.8 40%

Endgame

31.8 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3096, 2960, 9727

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3096, 2960, 9727

Auto

32.6 21%

Teleop

87.1 57%

Endgame

33.8 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.09 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score84pts

Blue projected score150.5pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -66.5
Score range: 57–177
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 211 vs event baseline 151.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

263.4Season APEX367.6

19.9Auto32.6

33.8Teleop87.1

31.8Endgame33.8

43Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	21
teleop	95	14
endgame	27	17
foul	0	10
total	149	62

Result

Final score

149 – 62

Prediction missed · off by 76.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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