FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

212.42 – 117.21

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

190 – 201

Prediction missed · off by 53.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 394.9 ±12.4

1701Robocubs

A+

Season APEX 301.3Event APEX 177.64Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3619BLACKHAWKS

Season APEX 48Event APEX 24.08Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4758RoboBlazers

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 10.7Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 268.9 ±11.7

9679Madison Eagles

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 1.93Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11457INVEST

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 5.12Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8280K9.0 Robotics

Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 110.16Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1701, 3619, 4758

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.4 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1701, 3619, 4758

Auto

44.2 21%

Teleop

104.7 49%

Endgame

63.3 30%

Strengths

· 1701 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9679, 11457, 8280

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9679, 11457, 8280

Auto

33.8 29%

Teleop

65.2 57%

Endgame

16.1 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.17 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score212.4pts

Blue projected score117.2pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 95.2
Score range: 90–239
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 391 vs event baseline 150.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

394.9Season APEX268.9

44.2Auto33.8

104.7Teleop65.2

63.3Endgame16.1

24Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	34
teleop	121	99
endgame	27	68
foul	0	0
total	190	201

Result

Final score

190 – 201

Prediction missed · off by 53.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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