FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

231.14 – 73.06

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

296 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 37 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 439.9 ±11.2

11461SW Phoenix

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX -0.44Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 122.27Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7188SaddleBots

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 109.31Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 144.1 ±13.3

2591RedTails

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 33.35Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7716JLW Formula 01

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 18.29Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4851JungleBots

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 21.42Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11461, 51, 7188

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.1 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11461, 51, 7188

Auto

31.3 14%

Teleop

143.5 62%

Endgame

55.4 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2591, 7716, 4851

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2591, 7716, 4851

Auto

20.6 30%

Teleop

35.6 51%

Endgame

13.1 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.36 · Blue 0.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score231.1pts

Blue projected score73.1pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 158.1
Score range: 46–258
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 360 vs event baseline 150.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

439.9Season APEX144.1

31.3Auto20.6

143.5Teleop35.6

55.4Endgame13.1

66Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	17
teleop	178	31
endgame	58	16
foul	0	0
total	296	64

Result

Final score

296 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 37 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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