FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

123.96 – 142.4

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

203 – 191

Prediction missed · off by 63.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 343 ±12

9727Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 64.6Event APEX -0.2Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 107.46Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11473Wixom Christian Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 16.7Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 253.5 ±12.8

6096UPSM Cobrots

Season APEX 30.4Event APEX 5.75Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1025Impi Warriors

Season APEX 161.7Event APEX 128.93Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5239The Royal Stags

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 7.72Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9727, 503, 11473

/ 100 compat

Projected

124 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9727, 503, 11473

Auto

36.6 30%

Teleop

62.0 51%

Endgame

23.0 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6096, 1025, 5239

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6096, 1025, 5239

Auto

21.2 16%

Teleop

75.0 57%

Endgame

34.3 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score124pts

Blue projected score142.4pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.4
Score range: 97–169
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 394 vs event baseline 149.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

343Season APEX253.5

36.6Auto21.2

62Teleop75

23Endgame34.3

56Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	29
teleop	112	95
endgame	44	67
foul	0	0
total	203	191

Result

Final score

203 – 191

Prediction missed · off by 63.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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