FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

113.56 – 109.56

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

279 – 11

Prediction correct · off by 132 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 443.9 ±10.7

8280K9.0 Robotics

Season APEX 180.4Event APEX -Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9212Infinity

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX -Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 64Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 139.5 ±13.9

11461SW Phoenix

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX -Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11473Wixom Christian Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX -Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7716JLW Formula 01

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 60Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8280, 9212, 10349

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8280, 9212, 10349

Auto

19.4 17%

Teleop

56.8 50%

Endgame

37.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11461, 11473, 7716

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 11461, 11473, 7716

Auto

20.9 19%

Teleop

57.3 52%

Endgame

31.3 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score113.6pts

Blue projected score109.6pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4
Score range: 83–141
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 290 vs event baseline 148.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

443.9Season APEX139.5

4.6Auto6

32Teleop32.6

27.4Endgame21.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	6
teleop	183	5
endgame	63	0
foul	5	0
total	279	11

Result

Final score

279 – 11

Prediction correct · off by 132 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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