FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

177.68 – 70.5

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

190 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 17.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 383.3 ±11.7

2960Automation Nation

Season APEX 257Event APEX 121.57Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10690ERROR 448

Season APEX 68.1Event APEX 26.73Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9212Infinity

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX 29.38Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 200.8 ±12.2

5642Mumford Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 33.9Event APEX 0.9Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

217ThunderChickens

Season APEX 104.4Event APEX 36.33Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6616Mechanical Pumas

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 33.27Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2960, 10690, 9212

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2960, 10690, 9212

Auto

31.6 19%

Teleop

95.3 56%

Endgame

42.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5642, 217, 6616

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5642, 217, 6616

Auto

10.4 13%

Teleop

35.2 45%

Endgame

31.9 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.14 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score177.7pts

Blue projected score70.5pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 107.2
Score range: 44–205
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 283 vs event baseline 149.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

383.3Season APEX200.8

31.6Auto10.4

95.3Teleop35.2

42.4Endgame31.9

39Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	15
teleop	124	59
endgame	9	19
foul	15	0
total	190	93

Result

Final score

190 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 17.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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