FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

248.14 – 61.53

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

234 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 40.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 390.3 ±10.5

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 101.53Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

818The Steel Armadillos

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 116.27Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3667Mecanum Knights

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 30.34Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 175.3 ±12.2

6566Battering Rams

Season APEX 44.7Event APEX 17.45Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9558The Steel Vipers

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 44.35Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2224RoboPhoenix

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX -0.27Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 247, 818, 3667

/ 100 compat

Projected

248.1 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 247, 818, 3667

Auto

44.8 19%

Teleop

123.1 53%

Endgame

65.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6566, 9558, 2224

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.5 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6566, 9558, 2224

Auto

37.5 72%

Teleop

6.0 12%

Endgame

8.6 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.46 · Blue 0.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score248.1pts

Blue projected score61.5pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 186.6
Score range: 35–275
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 363 vs event baseline 149.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

390.3Season APEX175.3

44.8Auto37.5

123.1Teleop6

65.2Endgame8.6

49Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	36
teleop	125	49
endgame	65	44
foul	0	0
total	234	129

Result

Final score

234 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 40.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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